Bitcoin’s price over the past couple of weeks has been on an absolute roller coaster, leaving many to wonder whether we’re still in a bull market, what’s going to happen next, and how to properly position themselves for the last quarter of the year.
Amid these turbulent times, we sit down with prominent on-chain analyst Daniel Joe. We talk about the current state of the market, whether or not we can expect Bitcoin to hit $100K anytime soon, as well as some useful advice for those of you who are just getting into the crazy world of cryptocurrency trading and investing.
Selling Apple Stocks for Bitcoin
Daniel Joe has over 10 years of experience in the markets, starting out in equities working for a myriad of organizations spanning from small tech startups to mid-sized and big corporations.
He is currently an on-chain technical analyst at Lightning Capital and data intelligence firm CryptoQuant. If his name sounds familiar, it’s because he’s also responsible for the amazing Bitcoin price analysis here at CryptoPotato.
Joe shared that he started out as a traditional value investor, relying on secure and time-tested principles. However, he also managed to catch the “tech growth wave” by investing in Apple, Tesla, and NVIDIA.
He first heard of Bitcoin back in 2014, but it wasn’t until later on in 2017 when he really dived deeper into it, and things clicked. Interestingly enough, Joe recently sold a serious chunk of the Apple stock he’s been holding for years and invested in BTC.
“The reason I sold Apple is because for the longest time I was waiting for the market to value Apple as a service company because that would give it a P multiple of roughly 30-40 times earnings, like Google or Facebook. This year that’s when it finally happened.
[…] I held on for a very long time and realized a lot of gains and thought that this is a great time because Apple is at multi-year highs, and Bitcoin is at $30,000. This was during the May-June crash.”
Bitcoin is Undervalued
The simplest way to understand the reasoning behind Joe’s move is this – Bitcoin is undervalued. Now, he’s a technical and on-chain analyst, so we also focused on that – what’s going on in the blockchain itself that backs this up.
First, Joe takes a look at how long-term holders and miners behave during the different market cycles.
One of the reasons I keep saying we’re not in a bear market is because the long-term holders and the miners who control most of the supply, are accumulating.
He reiterates that the most recent negative price fluctuations happen mostly because new and short-term holders, also commonly referred to as weak hands, are the ones selling. He also attributes some of the recent downfalls to big liquidation events but doesn’t see any serious reasons to think we’re not in a bull market.
And yet, the analyst keeps a realistic standing and lays out the one reason that might make him doubt Bitcoin. He said that the only such thing is if something newer and better comes up, but the chances of this happening are looking particularly slim right now.
A Look Into the (Bright) Future
$96,000 per BTC by December this year – that’s the base case scenario according to Daniel’s analysis. He also prefaced that by saying that it might also happen “sometime in Q1 next year (read: 2021).” He believes that we are yet in a bull market and also lays down further targets going forward.
Joe’s bullish target is $178K – $190K in December, Q1, or Q2 next year. If things go wild, though, he also said that we might see BTC trading above $300K and above.
The analyst made it clear that these targets are both time- and condition-based. There are a lot of targets that Bitcoin needs to conquer before we can get to those numbers. It’s also very important to monitor how on-chain metrics fluctuate while hitting these targets.
Daniel also compared the current cycle to the one from 2013 and gave some very precious advice to newcomers into the space, so make sure to take a look at the video and watch it until the end.