We take a look at Bitcoin prices as of September 21, 2021. Aside from fundamentals, we rely heavily on technical analysis to assess overall sentiment. This is achieved by identifying key support and resistance levels that traders and investors will be watching in the short term. Following a sharp sell-off this week, when can we expect Bitcoin to reverse sentiment?
At the time of this report, Bitcoin is currently trading at $41,423. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap has been highly correlated to traditional markets this week. BTC has slipped ~ 5% over the last 24 hours. With the recent declines, this now puts Bitcoin down ~ 15% over the last month. The sell-off accelerated yesterday while the S&P 500 fell ~ 1.7%.
Overseas fundamentals have sparked concerns at the macro level. Following developments around China Evergrande’s potential default, investors have flocked to safe-haven assets. For those unfamiliar, Evergrande’s outstanding debt is of epic proportion. A default would put a lot of pressure on the world’s second-largest economy in China. Historically, Bitcoin has been quite mixed when looking at it from a “safe-haven status.”
There have been scenarios where BTC has been highly uncorrelated to traditional markets and then times like this week, where Bitcoin has followed traditional sentiment. We believe the negative sentiment in traditional markets will be short-lived. This is why we continue to focus on technical analysis to assess sentiment for BTC.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
At the time of this analysis, Bitcoin price has recently rejected important support levels. We outline these levels on the chart below.
As we can quickly see from the chart above, Bitcoin price has rejected support at $42,500. This is a level we have been watching over the last week. The last time BTC rejected this level was in mid-May. After doing so, prices fell to $29,500. This is a development we will be watching in the short term.
As long as BTC stays below $42,500 resistance, we will remain bearish in the short term. This type of price action could propel prices to $37,200 support. When we look at ROC ( rate of change ) at the bottom of the chart, the sentiment is quite bearish at the moment. This is the same type of ROC we saw in mid-May during the sell-off. You will most likely not see a change in sentiment until Bitcoin ROC can get back above 0.00.
On the contrary, Bitcoin could reverse sentiment relatively quickly if it can surge back above $42,500 resistance. In this environment, BTC could power its way back to $46,800 levels. This seems less likely at the moment and we remain bearish as long as Bitcoin is below $42,500 resistance.
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