As Bitcoin nears the end of September, which according to the Stock-to-Flow creator, Plan B, has a worst-case month end “floor of 43k”, whale activity is going absolutely nuts. Data shows that whales are exhibiting very peculiar behavior in terms of the amount of BTC they are moving. Plan B basically predicted in late June that 43k would be in play as the “worst-case scenario” for the model.
Bitcoin is below $34K, triggered by Elon Musk's energy FUD and China's mining crack down.
There is also a more fundamental reason that we see weakness in June, and possibly July. My worst case scenario for 2021 (price/on-chain based): Aug>47K, Sep>43K, Oct>63K, Nov>98K, Dec>135K pic.twitter.com/hDONOVgxH1
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) June 20, 2021
It appears that whales, with knowledge of the immense reach that the S2F model has, are shaking out some weak hands. Perhaps retail investors, seeing Bitcoin below this “43k floor” would begin panicking as September comes closer and closer to ending. In the last few weeks, whales have moved more Bitcoin “around the network” than ever before. Even more than when Bitcoin was touching 64k a few months back…
Apparently, Plan B’s worst-case scenario is based on chain data, rather than just the stock-to-flow model, which he re-iterated today on Twitter. Regardless, knowing how explosive October could be, the whales are making some major moves. For example, transactions “involving $10 million and over recently hit more than $10 billion”.
Whales have been moving record amount of #Bitcoin last two weeks.
Total transfer volume of $10M+ transactions keeps staying at ATH lately.
It's even higher than when the price was at $55-60k. pic.twitter.com/FXvcCPPl57
— Lex Moskovski 🔺 (@mskvsk) September 28, 2021
As you can see, the spike in transfer volume is remarkable. Bitcoin is also rapidly moving off exchanges (red peaks), as seen below, which is very, very bullish. It appears we are gearing up for a mega-leg up, but there will be some whales games in the next 48 hours, and it already appears it’s happening.
Now, the volume exhibited by whales could be a result of what’s going on with China and Huobi, for example. It doesn’t causally mean ‘number go up.’ But there is more: according to on-chain data from Material Indicators, smaller whales have been selling while “mega-whales” have been buying.
The researchers mentioned that “If you are trying to understand these whale games, look to the thin liquidity they are trying to play to the upside.” An on-chain analyst from CryptoQuant mentioned that it is not surprising to see short-term selling in this range, but that we “need to make sure price stays above 40K.”
It appears that whales are going to make a major move to shake out investors by pushing the price down below 40k before October. It appears, though, that there is very, very strong support at 40k. We could see short-term volatility in the next couple of days, but Bitcoin looks still primed to blast off in the next few weeks, even if it dips below 40k.
Zoomed out, we are still on track. Here’s one indicator, what happened to all those “Bitcoin to 20k’ charts? The moral of this whale story is, don’t fall for the tricks, don’t get shaken out.
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