Crypto Price Weekly Analysis 6/17: ETH, BTC, SOL, DOGE

Without any doubt, it has been a hectic week for the crypto traders and the crypto market as a whole. Most of the top 20 cryptocurrencies are in red which tells us that the bearish trend from last week has intensified. This bearish trend can be seen in the top 50 list as well, which shows the severity of this situation.

If you read our last weekly analysis, then you would remember that we were bearish on BTC, ETH, BNB, and other cryptocurrencies. That sentiment was for the right reason – Last week, the bearish trend was minor in cryptocurrencies, but the technical charts clearly showed it was just the start of a storm & now we are in the middle of that storm.

So without wasting time, let’s look at what happened in the crypto market from 13 June to 17 June:

Ethereum (ETH)

Weekly Opening Price: $1434.84

Weekly High: $1455

Weekly Low: $1014.40

We will start our analysis with ETH, which is in red just like the rest of its peers in the top 10 list. During the first hour of Monday trading, bulls tried to push the price higher from the opening price of $1434.84 up to $1455. However, bulls failed to maintain the momentum, and all we got was a big red wick on the first opening candle of the Monday. That’s why we can say that bulls lost the battle of ETH right from the start, and this sentiment remained throughout the week.

From the ETH’s opening price of $1434.84 to its weekly low of $1014.40, it lost roughly 27% of its market cap. Although the market recovered slightly from its low of $1434.84 and is now trading marginally higher, ETH is still very bearish.

So what’s ahead for the Ethereum? If we draw the Ichimoku cloud on the ETH H1 timeframe and analyze its price movement from 13 June 2022 to 17 June 2022, it becomes clear that it failed to close even a single candle above the Ichimoku cloud.

And here’s the thing with the Ichimoku indicator – Whenever the price is trading above the cloud, that’s bullish momentum. If the price trades below the cloud, that’s bearish momentum. But when the price trades inside the clouds, that’s a sign that the market is struggling to find direction.

We believe that the trend in ETH will remain bearish until it breaks above the Ichimoku cloud with positive momentum. But will the ETH be able to break above the clouds? The last time it was trading above the Ichimoku clouds was on 6 June, and even till today, ETH has failed to even close a single candle above the clouds on the hourly chart.

The only bullish sign that I am seeing right now on the ETH H1 is an inverse H&S pattern in the making. The structure still lacks its right shoulder, and if we get a drop below the head, then the entire formation will become invalid. So if we do get a break above the neckline at $1260 with sufficient momentum, then the ETH can turn bullish and touch the $1480 level.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Weekly Opening Price: $26,574.53

Weekly high: $26,895.84

Weekly Low: $20,111.62

BTC is telling a similar story just like ETH, as it also dropped 24% from 13 June 2022 to 17 June 2022. I believe the reason for the intensified bearish trend in the BTC and other cryptocurrencies is the panic selling of the investors. But as we approach the end of this weekend, BTC seems to be forming a base around the $20,000 price level.

Let’s not forget that $20,000 is also a psychological level which is why we witnessed some buying around that level. Right now, there is a good chance that we might see a bullish momentum in the BTC, but it will be a weak one. The only time you should start to consider BTC as bullish is if it breaks the $23,000 price level.

For now, the price is sandwiched between the $20,000 and the $23,000 levels. An upward break of the $23,000 resistance level will push the prices higher to the $26,000 level. On the other hand, if the $20,000 also fails, the next stop would be at $19,300 and then $18,900 levels.

In short, action can happen in either direction, which means that you should be ready for both sides.

Solana (SOL)

Weekly Opening Price: $30.589

Weekly high: $36.093

Weekly Low: $25.843

Now let’s look at the Solana (SOL) for a change of pace. Although it is also trading close to its Monday opening, it is still a good thing compared to the losses witnessed in BTC, ETH, and other cryptocurrencies!

If you look at the SOL H1 chart, a symmetrical triangle formed between 14 June and 16 June 2022. And after a bullish breakout, the price ended up hitting its bullish target of $35 as well. After hitting the $35, the price met strong resistance and is now trading around the $30-$31 region.

If we get a bullish crossover of the 15 EMA & 30 EMA along with a break of the resistance at $32.00 – $32.50, then SOL will turn bullish once again, and there’s a good chance that it will retest its weekly high of $35.

On the downside, the important support levels are $29.80, $28, and $25.90. So there’s a good chance that we might see some bullish momentum even if the price falls from its current levels.

Dogecoin (DOGE)

Weekly Opening Price: $0.06352

Weekly high: $0.06394

Weekly Low: $0.04978

It would be an injustice not to mention Dogecoin in our list… The reason for mentioning it is not that it has posted any significant gains or losses – It just feels sad not to bring this dog-themed crypto into our discussion. I mean, if you just look at the Shiba Inu dog, it brings joy and a smile to your face.

The trend was slightly bearish in DOGE from 13 July to 17 July 2022, and it seems that the price is going nowhere with its current momentum.

The only technical pattern on the DOGE H1 chart is a triangle, but with its steep angle, we can’t say that it is a highly reliable chart pattern. But according to this pattern, DOGE has the potential to touch the $0.06531 and may gain 15% in its price.

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These Six Mining Charts Illustrate The Bitcoin Bear Market

The bear market cycle is in full effect, and these bits of data from the mining sector illustrate the effects of a depressed bitcoin market. Bitcoin’s price is down roughly 70% from its latest all-time high, and the mining sector is feeling the full weight of the ongoing bear market. Lots of fear, uncertainty and::Listen

The bear market cycle is in full effect, and these bits of data from the mining sector illustrate the effects of a depressed bitcoin market.

Bitcoin’s price is down roughly 70% from its latest all-time high, and the mining sector is feeling the full weight of the ongoing bear market. Lots of fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD) often spread far and wide about miners during bear markets, but the data about how these operators are affected and behave in this environment is simple. This article outlines six key data sets that illustrate the effects of the bear market on bitcoin miners and their operations.

Monthly dollar-denominated revenue is a hallmark metric that signals the state of the mining sector. In bearish market conditions, miners expect revenue to drop, and the below bar chart illustrates this is exactly what is happening. Primarily this metric is falling because of a cheaper bitcoin price quoted in dollars. In fact, monthly mining revenue in June is set to record its lowest level in 18 months. From August 2021 to April 2022, moreover, miners enjoyed a comfortable nine-month streak of at least $1 billion in total sector-wide revenue. May ended that streak, and revenue continues dropping in June.

Digging deeper into mining revenue, transaction fees are an important (and hotly debated) category of revenue. Many bitcoin advocates and critics alike argue that a strong fee market is critical for Bitcoin’s long-term success. And during bullish market conditions, fees generally represent a significant percentage of monthly mining revenue. But bear markets historically obliterate this revenue stream, and the current market conditions are no exception. From August 2021 to May 2022, fees represented roughly 10% to 15% of monthly revenue — but since August, that number has hovered around 1 percent. In fact, since August, fees have not represented more than 2% of monthly mining revenue as shown in the line chart below.

Mining machines have a very strong positive correlation to the price of bitcoin, and bear markets often cause prices for these machines to drop precipitously. There are several causes for this relationship, including repricing based on current revenue produced per machine and some basic psychological factors unique to the mining sector. Curiously, machine prices tend to lag behind bitcoin when the market sells off, and the below line chart illustrates this dynamic. Year-to-date, prices for mining machines across various levels of efficiency and profitability have dropped by 50% to 60% at the time of writing. If bitcoin’s price continues to dip, the mining hardware market will surely follow.

Not only are hardware prices dropping, but older machines are being squeezed out of the market altogether as economically rational miners are forced to power down less efficient hardware to avoid mining bitcoin at a price higher than the market is willing to pay for it. This effect is most clearly seen in the share of hash rate contributed by Antminer S9s, an old generation of machine developed by Bitmain. Compared to a 35% share of hashrate coming from these machines one year ago, S9s now contribute barely 5% of total hashrate, according to Coin Metrics data shown in the chart below. “At these BTC prices, the S9 once again looks like scrap metal,” said Coin Metrics analyst Parker Merritt.

The most precise metric for tracking mining revenue is hash price, which measures the dollar-denominated revenue per unit of hashing power energized per second per day. This metric often fluctuates independent of price, and it can go down even when the price of bitcoin goes up. The chart below shows growth in mining difficulty and plummeting hash price since early 2022. In fact, late June saw hash price drop below $0.10 for the first time since late October 2020. Yet another symptom of bearish market conditions making life more difficult and less profitable in the mining sector.

Collapsing share prices for publicly traded mining companies is probably the strongest signal of current market conditions. For all the reasons mentioned above, most mining companies are holding significantly devalued physically mining assets, operating with tightening profit margins and earning a much cheaper digital asset as bitcoin’s price drops. But mining stocks also tend to act as a high-beta play to bitcoin’s price, so when the bitcoin price moves either up or down, prices for shares of mining companies experience even larger moves in the same direction.

The line chart below shows the normalized one-year performance of a dozen different mining companies that trade on the Nasdaq. Almost every company is down at least 60% over that period, at the time of writing, with the worst performer — Stronghold Digital Mining — down 94%. Times are tough for bitcoin miners … and their shareholders.

In bearish conditions, the bitcoin markets often look to miners to gauge whether sentiment is stabilizing or worsening. Miners selling coins, unplugging machines, or liquidating hardware are all signs that, yes, conditions are bad. But ultimately all this data follows the price of bitcoin instead of affecting the price of bitcoin. So, when any of the above data sets will improve is an open question — it depends on when the bitcoin market levels out or turns bullish. Until then, miners continue operating according to their existing plans for surviving another long bear market.

This is a guest post by Zack Voell. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Crypto Price Weekly Analysis 6/17: ETH, BTC, SOL, DOGE

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