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TA: Ethereum Eyes Key Upside Break, Why Bulls Could Aim Larger Rally

Ethereum was able to clear the $3,800 resistance zone against the US Dollar. However, ETH price failed to gain strength above $3,900 and it is now consolidating gains.

  • Ethereum started a fresh increase above the $3,750 and $3,800 resistance levels.
  • The price is now trading above $3,800 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
  • There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near $3,840 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).
  • The pair could extend its rally if it stays above the $3,800 support zone.

Ethereum Price Gains Traction

Ethereum settled above the $3,650 level to move into a positive zone. ETH started a fresh rally above the $3,750 resistance zone and the 100 hourly simple moving average, similar to bitcoin.

The upward move was such that the price cleared the $3,800 resistance. Ether traded as high as $3,968 before there was a downside correction. The price corrected lower below the $3,800 level. However, the bulls were active near the $3,650 zone.

A low was formed near $3,640 and the price started a fresh increase. The price cleared the $3,800 resistance zone. There was a break above the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $3,968 swing high to $3,640 low.

Besides, there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near $3,840 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. The pair is now trading above $3,800 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

An immediate resistance on the upside is near the $3,890 level. It is near the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $3,968 swing high to $3,640 low. The next major resistance is near the $3,910 level, above which the price might start a fresh surge.

Source: ETHUSD on TradingView.com

In the stated case, the price could climb towards the $3,980 level. Any more gains could set the pace for a move towards the $4,120 level in the near term.

Dips Supported in ETH?

If ethereum fails to continue higher above the $3,890 and $3,910 resistance levels, it could start a fresh downside correction. An initial support on the downside is near the $3,820 level.

The first key support is now forming near the $3,800 level and the 100 hourly SMA. If there is a downside break below the $3,800 support, the price could decline further. The next key support is near $3,720.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is gaining pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now above the 50 level.

Major Support Level – $3,800

Major Resistance Level – $3,910

SHA-256 doesn’t follow a uniform distribution?

I have been playing with SHA-2-256 in Julia and I noticed that the hashes produced don’t appear to follow a uniform distribution. My understanding of secure hashing algorithms is that they should approximate a uniform distribution well, so they are not predictable. Here is the Julia code I’m using: using BitIntegers, Distributions, HypothesisTests, Random, SHA::Listen

I have been playing with SHA-2-256 in Julia and I noticed that the hashes produced don’t appear to follow a uniform distribution. My understanding of secure hashing algorithms is that they should approximate a uniform distribution well, so they are not predictable.

Here is the Julia code I’m using:

using BitIntegers, Distributions, HypothesisTests, Random, SHA

function sha256_rounds()
    rounds::Array{Array{UInt8,1}} = Array{Array{UInt8,1}}(undef, 10000) # 10000 Samples
    hash::Array{UInt8} = Array{UInt8}(undef, 64) # 64-byte array

    for i = 1:10000
        hash = sha2_256(string(rand(UInt64), base = 16)) # Random number, convert to hex string, then seed
        rounds[i] = hash
    end

    return rounds
end

sha256_str_vals = [join([string(x, base = 16) for x in y]) for y in sha256_rounds()] # Stitch the bytes together into strings
sha256_num_vals_control = [parse(UInt256, x, base = 16) for x in sha256_str_vals] # Get the numerical value from the strings

OneSampleADTest(sha256_num_vals, Uniform()) # One sample Anderson-Darling test

And the result of the test:

One sample Anderson-Darling test
--------------------------------
Population details:
    parameter of interest:   not implemented yet
    value under h_0:         NaN
    point estimate:          NaN

Test summary:
    outcome with 95% confidence: reject h_0
    one-sided p-value:           <1e-7

Details:
    number of observations:   10000
    sample mean:              8.73991847621225e75
    sample SD:                2.2742656031884893e76
    A² statistic:             Inf

To me this says that the produced hashes do not conform to a uniform distribution. Am I using the test incorrectly, or is my sample faulty? Thank you for your thoughts.

TA: Ethereum Eyes Key Upside Break, Why Bulls Could Aim Larger Rally

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